My Readiness-Based Unofficial Estimate of the Philippines’ PISA 2025 Combined Total
This is a simple linear projection to test if this is sufficient for predicting scores. - Leo De Velez (Aug. 5, 2026)
During the final month of preparation before the PISA 2025 assessment, learners used the Frontlearners online mock exams in Mathematics, Science, and Reading. These mock exams were recreated from officially released PISA items and combined the related assessment modules for each subject into one timed assessment. The underlying report covers online mock exams only and excludes module quizzes and offline results.
Beginning in January 2025, learners practiced individual PISA-style sample problems using Frontlearners’ offline and online materials. On February 24, 2025, the preparation format shifted to complete, timed mock exams in Mathematics, Science, and Reading.
The first week of complete mock-exam use was treated as a familiarization period. The analysis therefore used the seven-day moving-average score on March 3 as the starting benchmark and the corresponding score on March 24 as the ending benchmark.
The combined seven-day moving-average score increased from 58.0% on March 3 to 68.4% on March 24. This represents an absolute improvement of 10.4 percentage points and a relative improvement of 17.93%.
Calculation
Observed improvement = 68.4% - 58.0% = 10.4 percentage points Relative uplift = 10.4 / 58.0 = 17.93% Estimated PISA 2025 combined total = 1,057.4 x 1.1793 = 1,247.0Based purely on the proportional improvement observed in the Frontlearners mock-exam performance indicator, my readiness-based scenario estimate for the Philippines’ PISA 2025 combined total is approximately 1,247 points.
The upward trend indicates that aggregate online mock-exam performance improved during three weeks of repeated complete mock-exam practice. The improvement may reflect stronger understanding of the assessed content, learning from mistakes, improved retrieval, better pacing and time management, greater familiarity with timed assessments, and increased comfort with computers and computer-based testing. The full report similarly shows that the seven-day moving-average score reached approximately 71% before ending at around 68% on March 24.
Because learners repeated the same mock exams, some of the improvement may also reflect familiarity with the questions, remembered solutions, and greater familiarity with the assessment format.
Method note: This is my readiness-based mathematical scenario, not an official OECD forecast. It is based on aggregate online attempts rather than matched learner-level results, excludes offline attempts, and has not been formally linked or equated to the PISA scoring scale. The figure of 1,247 is a constructed total for Mathematics, Science, and Reading, not an official OECD composite score.
FRONTLEARNERS PISA 2025 READINESS
LEADING PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
ONLINE MOCK EXAMS ONLY
Excluding Module QuizzesFebruary 3–March 24, 2025
Practice Makes Perfect!
Report Scope
This report focuses exclusively on the online mock exams in Mathematics, Science, and Reading. Previous reports combined results from the mock exams and module quizzes. For each subject, the mock exam combines all related module quizzes into a single timed assessment.
Key Findings
1. Participation. All participating schools recorded attempts in the online module quizzes, and nearly all also recorded attempts in the online mock exams.
2. Score trend. The seven-day moving average score rose from about 37% to a peak of approximately 71%, then eased to around 68% by March 24.
3. Regional performance. Average online mock-exam scores ranged from 30.3% in NCR to 72.1% in Region XIII (Caraga).
4. Regional participation. Region III recorded 1,137 online attempts, while Region II and NCR recorded only 32 and 74 attempts, respectively.
5. School-level spread. The top 25 school entries recorded average scores of approximately 96% to 100%, while the bottom 50 entries recorded averages of approximately 26.7% to 29.0%.
Overall Interpretation
The aggregate results improved substantially during the reporting period, but performance and participation remained uneven across regions and schools. Continued practice can help learners identify errors, strengthen their understanding, and improve mastery.
Priority actions should include increasing participation in low-activity regions, providing targeted support to low-performing schools, incorporating offline results when they become available, and standardizing school names before finalizing school-level rankings.
Data Notes
This report excludes offline mock-exam results. Therefore, all participation figures in this report refer only to online attempts.
Some schools may appear more than once because of spelling variations or differences in how their names were entered. Until these duplicate entries are consolidated, the school-level charts should be interpreted as rankings of school entries, rather than confirmed rankings of unique schools.
A. Seven-Day Moving Average Score Across All Subjects
The chart shows the combined seven-day moving average score for the online mock exams in Mathematics, Science, and Reading. The average rose from about 37% early in the reporting period to a peak of approximately 71%. It then eased slightly and ended at around 68% on March 24.
The overall trend is positive. However, the recent plateau suggests that further gains may require more focused review, repeated practice, and targeted support for learners who continue to struggle.
B. Average Online Mock-Exam Score by Region
The bars show the average online mock-exam score for each region. The percentage is displayed at the end of each bar.
Region XIII (Caraga) recorded the highest average score at 72.1%, followed by Region XII at 71.0% and Region VIII at 69.8%. Region I, Region II, and NCR recorded the lowest averages at 37.3%, 35.7%, and 30.3%, respectively.
The wide range of regional averages shows substantial variation in performance. However, averages from regions with very few attempts should be interpreted with caution because they may not represent the overall performance of the region.
C. Regional Average Scores and Online Attempts
The bars show the average online mock-exam score for each region. The labels at the end of the bars show the number of online mock-exam attempts.
Region III recorded the highest number of attempts at 1,137, followed by Region IV-A at 886. Region XII and Region VI also recorded relatively high participation, with 733 and 732 attempts, respectively. Region II and NCR recorded only 32 and 74 attempts, while Region I recorded 229.
These figures represent online participation only because offline attempts are excluded from this report. The low number of attempts in some regions may also affect the reliability of their average scores.
D. Top 25 School Entries by Average Mock-Exam Score
The chart ranks the 25 highest-performing school entries based on their average combined mock-exam scores. Ten entries achieved 100%, and every entry in the displayed top 25 recorded an average score of approximately 96% or higher.
These results show that several school entries recorded near-perfect performance under timed assessment conditions. However, the rankings should also be reviewed alongside the number of attempts recorded by each school before firm conclusions are made.
Data-quality note. Some schools appear more than once because their names were entered using different spellings. Duplicate entries should be consolidated, and each school’s overall score should be recalculated using all of its recorded attempts before the rankings are finalized.
E. Bottom 50 School Entries by Average Mock-Exam Score
The 50 lowest-performing school entries recorded average combined mock-exam scores ranging from approximately 26.7% to 29.0%. This narrow but low range identifies a group that may benefit from targeted review, repeated practice, and closer monitoring.
Before these rankings are used for intervention planning, duplicate school names should be consolidated and the number of attempts recorded by each school should be reviewed. A low average based on only a few attempts may not accurately represent the performance of the entire school.
FRONTLEARNERS PISA 2025 READINESS
ADAPTED RELEASED ITEM RESULTS
LEADING PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
LAST 10 DAYS (FEB 24 – MAR 05, 2025) vs (FEB. 03 – 23, 2025)
There is an increase in the average scores per region from the first three weeks of February (Feb 3-21) to the average scores in the past 10 days (Feb 23 to Mar 5) after the Baguio ManCom meeting.
In the past ten days, repetitions is still benefiting students with now more than 26% doing it vs 24% before.
The scores are still inching up in terms of daily average for the past 10 days as seen in the first three weeks.
Frontlearners Adapted Released Items - Sample Mock Exam
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